My articles in previous months have been somewhat depressing and downbeat. This would be surprising to those that know me as by nature I am optimistic. It can be a fine line between optimism and naivety but there comes a time when even the most optimistic of individuals have to face reality.

In economic terms the reality is that the UK is facing its most difficult time in the last fifteen years. By most accounts whilst the UK economy is not in a recession, economic growth is stalling, high street spending is down, house prices are falling and there has been a decline in mortgage lending coupled with confidence continuing to spiral downwards. In the US several accounts suggest the recession has already arrived and Japan shows similar signs. Whilst the Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke says they are not currently forecasting a recession he did say that the outlook for the US economy in 2008 has worsened. With the global economy now so interlinked, these signs also do not augur well for the health of the UK economy. Continue reading →